{
 "slug": "read-two-numbers",
 "name": "Read two numbers, then decide",
 "category": "publish",
 "group": "Reading the numbers",
 "media": [
  "video"
 ],
 "checked": "2026-11-13",
 "effect": "You know whether to fix the opening, fix the body, repeat or drop.",
 "use_when": "A post that has settled, about 72 hours after it went out.",
 "phrase": "compare reach and engagement with the account's own medians, never with another account",
 "pitfalls": [
  {
   "text": "Reach without engagement: a fake-news opener had 490,000 plays at 1.0 percent likes and 0.18 percent saves, and led nowhere.",
   "evidence": "measured",
   "source": "Director Chair field notes on short-form video (one TikTok account, 233 posts and 27 measured clips, read 30 Oct 2026)"
  },
  {
   "text": "Engagement without reach: the three weakest posts reached 7,600 to 11,700 views yet were saved at 0.9 to 3.4 percent, as much as the hits.",
   "evidence": "measured",
   "source": "Director Chair field notes on short-form video (one TikTok account, 233 posts and 27 measured clips, read 30 Oct 2026)"
  }
 ],
 "per_model": [],
 "external_refs": [],
 "licensed": [],
 "site_names": [],
 "related": [
  "outlier-ratio",
  "feed-a-breakout",
  "hook-rate-and-hold-rate"
 ],
 "rights": "own-work",
 "evidence": "measured",
 "source": {
  "url": null,
  "note": "Own words from Director Chair field notes on short-form video (one TikTok account, 233 posts and 27 measured clips, read 30 Oct 2026)"
 },
 "body": "## The four outcomes\n\n| | Engagement at or above the median | Engagement under half the median |\n|---|---|---|\n| **Reach 3 times or more** | A winner. Post the next one on the same promise within 48 hours | The opening works, the body or payoff does not. Keep frame 0, fix what follows |\n| **Reach under half** | The body works, the opening did not stop people. New frame 0, re-cut, post again | Drop the idea |\n\nReach is views divided by the median of the account's ten posts before it. Engagement is likes, saves and shares per view against the account's own medians.",
 "shown_with": null,
 "url": "https://directorchair.ai/publish/read-two-numbers",
 "markdown": "https://directorchair.ai/publish/read-two-numbers.md",
 "prompts": {
  "chat": "Give me a step-by-step plan I can follow this week, for a short video about [your product], for [your audience]. The technique is read two numbers, then decide: you know whether to fix the opening, fix the body, repeat or drop. How it works: compare reach and engagement with the account's own medians, never with another account. It is right for: a post that has settled, about 72 hours after it went out. Reach without engagement: a fake-news opener had 490,000 plays at 1.0 percent likes and 0.18 percent saves, and led nowhere. Engagement without reach: the three weakest posts reached 7,600 to 11,700 views yet were saved at 0.9 to 3.4 percent, as much as the hits. Be concrete: numbers, seconds and settings, no theory. Ask me one question first if something you need is missing."
 },
 "licence": {
  "code": "MIT",
  "text": "CC BY 4.0",
  "third_party": "Clips and card texts inside a \"licensed\" block belong to their makers and are shown with permission and credit."
 }
}